What's Important is the Trend

Elon Musk Says This Is The Chart About Arctic Sea Ice That Really Matters

“So does the fact that there is more Arctic sea ice now than there was in 2012 mean that global warming has stopped or that it's really not as bad as some people claim it is?”

“As Phil Plait points out over at Slate, there are several times where the level of sea ice jumps up from the year before, but the overall trend is still down. The trend is what really matters, he says.”

The satellite data is often quoted from 1979 which happened to be at a maximum. The Arctic did not come into existence in 1979. Do we know what the trend was prior to 1979? Apparently there is an IPCC graph that goes back to 1974 that plots an increasing trend to 1979. So the Arctic sea ice goes through cycles. Elon didn’t mention this? How convenient.  We know from newspapers of the past that scientists back in the day were worried about a warming Arctic and the effect it might have on coastal cities. Sound familiar?

When you mention a trend it is important to pay attention to your mention. It might take your theory out of contention.

Trends. OK. How about this for a trend? There have been many attempts by various experts to predict when the Arctic will be ice free in the summer due to human emissions of CO2. They have never been correct. They have been wrong 100% of the time. Now I don’t know how your mind works but that constant trend indicates to my brain that perhaps the experts don’t understand the Arctic as well as they think they do. It doesn’t seem to be changing as quickly as they expected it would.

Ask people being rescued in the Arctic or who have decided to abort their attempt to traverse the NWP if it is as ice free as they were expecting from all they have heard.

If the scientists who think the AMO has a great influence on the amount of sea ice in the Arctic are correct then we should see increasing amounts of sea ice when the AMO flips to its negative( colder) phase. Time will tell on that one.

What goes on in the Arctic must be compatible with the other trends expected from a CO2 induced changing climate. If those trends don’t match then we don’t have a valid theory of climate change.

At the other end of the planet the sea ice around Antarctica has been expanding and setting records DESPITE the enormous increase in CO2 added to the air by nasty humans. This was unexpected and represents another disconnect between fact and theory.

Temperatures have been in stasis for 15+ years depending on the dataset used as your guide DESPITE the enormous rise in CO2 that has taken place over that time. This is an embarrassing disconnect between reality and theory and should be no surprise to those who know that CO2 concentration in the air has been much greater than today throughout much of the last 570 million years. Temperatures over that time have NOT tracked the CO2 concentration. There was no tipping point when CO2 concentrations were 10 to 20 times what they are now. This is all that is needed to put the final nail in the coffin of climate change by CO2.

Extreme weather is supposed to become more severe and more frequent as CO2 builds in the atmosphere. Such is not the case. Hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, drought and wildfires are all down globally during the time of greatest human induced CO2 buildup over the last 60 years.

Sea level rise has decelerated since 2002 according to the latest research.That’s a change in trend unexpected and embarrassing to the climate alarmists.

Neither precipitation nor relative humidity show an increasing trend contrary to what is expected on a planet warming by CO2 emissions.

Perhaps we have been mistaken and we owe CO2 an apology.

So, Elon, you have one trend currently going in your favor and none of the others so crucial to the CO2 centric theory of climate change are moving in the ‘right’ direction. To my mind it appears that CO2 has been accorded the lead role in the climate drama where it would be more appropriate to offer it a bit part or exclude it from the cast altogether.

Meanwhile, as some humans try to demonize our breath, CO2 has gone about its scientific business of providing food for our flora and greening the planet. My fruits and veggies are grateful and so are yours.

CO2 was exhaled during the creation of this post. No living thing was harmed. Some even liked it. CO2 is clean and green.

Does the Nurse Need a Doctor?

Climate skeptics should be ‘crushed and buried’: Sir Paul Nurse attacks politicians who ‘distort’ facts on global warming

Sir Paul added: 'We need to be aware of those who mix up science, based on evidence and rationality, with politics and ideology, where opinion, rhetoric and tradition hold more sway. We need to be aware of political or ideological lobbyists who do not respect science, cherry picking data or argument, to support their pre-determined positions.' Perhaps a good description of himself? Psychological projection?

“Politicians who do not believe in climate change should be 'crushed and buried', according to the new president of the British Science Association.” Does the Nurse need a Doctor? Or is this just an angry expression of irrationality? Totally embarrassing confessions for the President of the British Science Association. Shouldn’t we expect cogent reasoning from such a position?

Is the temperature stasis a distortion?

Global Temperature Update - No global warming for 17 years 11 months

Ridley in WSJ: Whatever Happened to Global Warming? Now come climate scientists’ implausible explanations for why the ‘hiatus’ has passed the 15-year mark

New paper on ‘the pause’ says it is 19 years at surface and 16-26 years at the lower troposphere

Oh yeah, but it will be worse in the distant future! .UN predicts ‘climate hell’ in 2050

And they know this how? Must have missed the recall on their crystal ball.

UK Met Office issues scary mock 2050 weather forecasts. – WAS WRONG 12 of LAST 13 SUMMERS

But we will get it right in 2050! Trust us.

Flashback: Earth ‘Serially Doomed’: UN Issues New 15 Year Climate Tipping Point – But UN Issued Tipping Points in 1982 & Another 10-Year Tipping Point in 1989!

The ‘settled science’ seems malleable. Can we safely conclude that the experts don’t know squat about climate change?

Scientists have learned to play politics. Push a scary story: attract much funding and notoriety.

Work on the mundane and poor and obscure you will remain.

The new president of the BSA has learned this lesson well.

Hilary Put Her Ignorance on Display

And confirmed her membership in the National Institute for the Asinine.

Hillary Clinton calls out climate ‘deniers’

Hillary Clinton Attacks Climate Change Deniers For ‘Pretending We Don’t Have A Crisis’

Rand Paul hits Hillary Clinton climate comments: ‘I don’t think we really want a commander-in-chief who’s battling climate change instead of terrorism’

Some education for Hilary from Paul Homewood.

Hillary Calls Out Deniers – Well, I’m Here And Waiting, Hillary!

Hilary seems to be unaware of the location of the climate data collected and maintained by the government agencies bought and paid for by the taxpayer. Her own agencies refute her assertions. Either she is unaware of these facts or she is lying. Neither characteristic is desirable in a potential POTUS. And this Americans would want to be leading them going forward after 2016?

One would hope not but then they elected the current destructive tyrant of a POTUS - twice!

Where Have All the Cyclones Gone?

Where have all the cyclones gone, long time passing?

Where have all the cyclones gone, long time ago?

According to Climate News: 'Peak of cyclone/hurricane season and there isn't any cyclones/hurricanes anywhere on planet.

U.S. hurricane drought still in record territory: ‘Almost nine years since the last major hurricane struck the US’

Cyclones fear the continued rise of CO2 in the atmosphere. They run and hide from CO2.

It is the only thing that makes sense. CO2 has been rising unabated in the atmosphere and cyclones are afraid of it.

You know I’m right.

Data Manipulation - The Story Not Told

If their pet theory falls apart due to the unexpected behaviour of the real world scientists should be expected to do science and either modify or abandon the theory. Manufacturing data to in its favor is not usually acceptable as a means of support.

The government agencies in charge of gathering and presenting the data should do so with the utmost regard for accuracy. Suspicion of alteration should be avoided with transparent practices and regular audits by outside non-partisan experts in auditing principles. Scientists need to be held accountable to the public for their work.

In the realm of climate science those charged with collecting the meteorological data on temperature, precipitation, pressure etc need oversight as the accusations of data tampering to support the theory of man made global warming have begun to surface around the world.

Australia Government Accused Of Manipulating Temperature Data

It is tough to construct a theory(model) that works if the data is designed to produce the result desired. It will soon become evident that the theory does not track reality. What then? More data tampering??

As discovered by ‘Steven Goddard’ meteorological data tampering was recognized as a potential problem as early as 1907.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology accused of Criminally Adjusted ‘Global Warming’

With so much taxpayer money being thrown at the man made global warming falsifying for funding should be treated with the utmost seriousness so that the truth about the tampering and the state of the climate can be correctly determined and faced. If man made global warming is a manufactured myth it is best to know this and stop the enormous waste of resources that this has entailed. Let’s get back to science and not allow data tampering to spread as an incurable infestation of government coffers.

As Steven has found it is not just the BoM that is cooking the books NASA and NOAA in the US are altering historical records to produce the desired (warming) result they want. After preaching the catastrophic nature of climate change it would be very embarrassing to have to admit they were so wrong. Best to alter the data to produce desired results, save face and keep the funding flowing.

Or one can always try the following ruse to maintain the insanity.

The Latest Crazy Excuse From The Warming Enthusiasts—Global Warming Causes Global Cooling

There might be some true believers in the government who will push it with a straight face.

The need to publish past failed predictions far and wide is required to restrain the exuberance of those who think they know how to forecast the future. It also enlightens the public and how little the ‘experts’ really know so that we don’t put them on pedestals they don’t deserve.

1986 : “Big League Climatologists” Said We Were Doomed By The Year 2000

1986 : World’s Greatest Climatologist Predicted Five Degrees Warming By 2010

Is it really surprising that we are still here? When it comes to scientific seers it is best to remember the words of a famous philosopher:

The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts -- Bertrand Russell

President Eisenhower was aware of the problem and in his 1961 exit speech warned of the possibility that technological elites could capture the reins of government due to their specialised knowledge.

Climate science was not the correct discipline to use to try to capture power. The weather is something that all have an opinion about and it is difficult to hide the facts that you can see right out your window. In a supposedly ‘warming’ world it is difficult to hide harsh winters like those of 2012-2013 and 2013-2014. Growing ice in the polar regions can get in the way of humans traveling in those regions. Rescue of people trapped in ice is not evidence of an overheated world. Over 90% ice cover on the Great Lakes in 2013-2014 does not attract adherents to global warming theory.

To maintain a fiction in the face of contrary evidence does not serve science well nor the reputations of the scientists who refuse to acknowledge reality. It makes a mockery of science and creates cartoon characters out of scientists. “Expert’ becomes a term of derision, a boy crying wolf.

When scientists are asked for an opinion and they say such and such will happen if present trends continue reporters need to learn to ask them if they know whether the trend will continue. Scientists must be schooled to resist the temptation to assume the role of oracle and realize that their Phd does not come with a direct line to the truth nor a guarantee of infallibility. Mother Nature has issued recalls on all scientific crystal balls. No one knows the future except her and she is not talking. Those who ignore this conservative practice should expect the mocking satire that comes with failed prognostications. It is safer for scientists to say ‘this is what we think we know. Come back in 10 years to see if we still think the same’ than to elevate their opinion to that of a god. Humility and caution keep us grounded in reality. Certainty can lead to exaggeration and funding. Tough choice. Which would you choose?

"It is no secret that a lot of climate-change research is subject to opinion, that climate models sometimes disagree even on the signs of the future changes (e.g. drier vs. wetter future climate). The problem is, only sensational exaggeration makes the kind of story that will get politicians’ — and readers’ — attention. So, yes, climate scientists might exaggerate, but in today’s world, this is the only way to assure any political action and thus more federal financing to reduce the scientific uncertainty." ~ Monika Kopacz, atmospheric scientist

Was Suzuki Right?

"More than any other time in history, the 1990s will be a turning point for human civilization." ~ David Suzuki, 1990

I don’t think this is what he had in mind but global mean temperatures did stop rising toward the end of the 1990s. They went from rising to flat. Unfortunately for the climate models CO2 has continued to rise unabated thus short circuiting the potential preferred causal relation between the two.

"Humanity is facing a challenge unlike any we’ve ever had to confront. We are in an unprecedented period of change." ~ David Suzuki, 2011

Damn! Right again. Temps have been decreasing since 2002. We are going to have to come to terms with our botched science and redo the global climate models.

“All life on Earth is our kin. And in an act of generosity, our relatives create the four sacred elements for us.”..."We have become a force of nature...Not long ago, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, drought, forest fires, even earthquakes and volcanic explosions were accepted as "natural disasters or "acts of God."  But now, we have joined God, powerful enough to influence these events." ~ David Suzuki

Well, I wish he were correct. It would be nice to be able to stop volcanoes, earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes and the rest of the cast members of extreme weather. Tinkering with CO2 atmospheric concentration has been shown to be a fruitless endeavour, wishful thinking of the delusional kind.

Two out of three is not bad. Spurred on by his crystal ball of scientific accuracy Suzuki proposed a solution for deniers.

Green Activist David Suzuki: Jail Politicians Who Deny Global Warming; But PBS Host Bill Moyers Worries There’s Lack of Prison Space

Since he was so wrong can we put David in the slammer for falsely impersonating a scientist?

David, missed the recall on his crystal ball. 

Quotes via c3headlines.com

 

Can They Tell I'm a Denier?

“It was terribly dangerous to let your thoughts wander when you were

in any public place or within range of a telescreen. The smallest

thing could give you away, a nervous tic, an unconscious look of

anxiety, a habit of muttering to yourself–anything that carried

with it the suggestion of abnormality, of having something to

hide. In any case, to wear an improper expression on your face…; was

itself a punishable offense” ~George Orwell 1984

The Union of Censorious Scientists: Stop Quoting ‘Contrarians’

Do they know I am denier? Should I worry?

Join the Pause

CO2 got tired of trapping the heat and stopped raising the global temperature 13+ years ago depending on the global temperature dataset used as your guide.

It would now appear that hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, drought and wildfires have also joined the pause.

Declining to pause and upsetting the cause the sea ice in Antarctica continues to increase. MIT scientists have confirmed that most of Antarctica has been cooling.

In the Arctic Santa need not worry about  an ice free North Pole this year(2014) contrary to the warning of Al Gore. Experts are so good at predicting what will happen in the Arctic that they have continued to revise their guesses about when the Arctic will be ice free. Could this be because they don’t really understand what is happening there and that it is not happening faster than anticipated?

Sea level rise has decelerated since 2002 according to the latest research.

And all this is in spite of the unrelenting increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. This is just not supposed to be happening.

The ‘settled science’ says so. This is the GHG theory of climate change that many accept as children who do not question the story of Santa Claus. Some will not want to give it up even in the face of evidence to the contrary. Some will feel cheated and angry that they were duped. The dupers will continue to look for children to fool. Political agendas need true believers.

These are enormous disconnects between fact and theory. Now, I don’t know how your mind works but mine concludes that the CO2 greenhouse gas theory of climate change is not a reliable guide to the future. It has been invalidated by Mother Nature who has the only opinion that counts for she is never wrong.

CO2 is clean and green. We owe CO2 an apology.

Wild Bill

'Global warming is out of control and the biggest threat that human beings have ever faced,

~Bill McKibben

In light of the stasis in global mean temperature that has lasted for at least a decade and a half Bill sounds hysterical - in both senses of that word - funny and pathetic.

A person can become wilfully blind to reality when their whole life has become infused with and dependent upon a particular proposition. Bill seems a delusional character who sees only what he wants and needs to see.

Forever the spin. Spin to win, eh Bill?

Bill McKibben’s ‘People’s Climate March’ Seeks to ‘Change Everything’ to fight global warming    

And as if to cement his reputation as a delusional thinker, on cue Wild Bill comes along with this gem.

Warmist Bill McKibben: ‘Scientists long ago won the argument on climate change, they’ve just lost the fight’   

No, Bill. Some scientists long ago knew the CO2 GreenHouse theory was bogus. Now, Mother Nature has confirmed that finding with the temperature stasis among other data.       

               

Leaked Report

A new IPCC report has been leaked prior to the September meeting in NYC.

Warmist Joe Romm: ‘Climate Scientists Spell Out Stark Danger And Immorality Of Inaction In New Leaked Report’        

‘Leaked’ gives the impression that we shouldn’t be reading it yet because it is not the final version or it is the final version but we aren’t supposed to see it until it is officially released.

We can only hope that it isn’t the final version and that by some miraculous return to reality the IPCC will recognize the stupidity and exaggeration present in their report of impending climate disaster.

How can a lack of warming over the prior 15 years despite an unabated increase in CO2  be cause for hand wringing? If nothing is happening when it was expected to be ’worse than we thought’ and ‘happening faster than we predicted’ perhaps it is time to pause, rejoice and actually figure out what is going on?

Climate Experts Wrong Again

But the science is settled and it is worse than we thought. Here is a 2009 story from the Guardian warning us that temperatures will warm faster than predicted over the next five years.

Claim: ‘World will warm faster than predicted in next five years’, study warns – ‘Expected to silence global warming skeptics’

Below are the results for the five year period 2009-2013 presented using the NOAA global temperature database on Sept. 1, 2014.  

I don’t know how your brain works but mine concludes that those who purport to know how the climate behaves don’t know what they are talking about. My mind concludes that it is more difficult to model the climate in our non-linear chaotic atmosphere than alarmist climate scientists would like to admit. Has CO2 lost its heat trapping ability? Or is that CO2 feature so negligible as to be meaningless or so weak that it can easily be nullified by other natural climate factors that the experts have overlooked?