Mother Nature stopped raising the global mean temperature 16+ years ago. The global climate models that the IPCC relies upon for its peek into the future did not produce such a scenario. Extending a trend is easy. Only the genius can predict the bend in the trend. Mother Nature inserted a curve into the runway and the models fell off the catwalk laying in tears at the tears in their computer code.
Time for new models and time for scientists to ‘man up’ and admit the failure of the models which means a concomitant admission that they have no idea where the climate is going.
At least that is an honest description of the current state of chaos in climatology.
Arrhenius said that CO2 would heat the atmosphere and climates would change. We would farm again in Greenland.
And so a theory was formed, inputs recognized, algorithms developed and climate models constructed to simulate the future of climate change. Mother Nature has now invalidated our attempts to cast CO2 in the lead role of the computer models. Recent evidence, as has been recognized in the IPCC’s AR5 SPM, leads to a lower estimate of climate sensitivity. CO2 has been relegated to a bit part in the climate drama. Other factors(natural) have overwhelmed the expected prowess of CO2 to trap heat and stopped the rise of temperatures for the last 17 years. We seek a new ‘star’ for the lead role in our climate story. Perhaps the one that rises in the east and sets in the west could fulfil that role.
IT is an undeniable and incontrovertible truth that Mother Nature has repudiated the POGO theory of CAGW. It is time for all good humans to come to the aid of their science and officially recognize these results. Acknowledging one’s errors is never a pleasant undertaking and may be quite embarrassing for the august societies that have championed the disproven theory of human induced global warming. ‘Climate change is happening and we are at fault’ is no longer a tenable proposition. We know that climate changes continuously. The ‘why’ is still a matter of conjecture. Our inability to create ‘scenarios’ that mirror reality is a dead giveaway to our ignorance of the mechanisms that drive climate change. It undermines our understanding and our confidence in the direction that climate change will take in the future. Proven defective, our crystal ball has experienced a recall by Mother Nature.
The last august body to revise its official position of support for CAGW will attract the most shame. Scientific bodies which DENY reality are an embarrassment not only to themselves and to science but to the more rational scientists who comprise its membership.
Who will be first among them to repudiate their allegiance to the POGO theory of climate change and admit that they were part of the greatest scientific lapse of judgement in human history and the victims of the likes of James Hansen and Timothy Wirth? Step right up. Don’t be shy. Don’t let it become even more humiliating by permitting an even wider gap between your adherence to an invalidated POGO theory and the observational instrumental data plotted on graphs that even the least educated individual will be able to ridicule.
Do science a favor. Renew your dedication to reality as your guiding principle swearing to uphold the principle that you will go where the data takes you and not modify the data to make it conform to your preconceived notions. The practises of the 1984 Ministry of Truth have no place in science. Mother Nature will not be denied.
We have met POGO and he is not us.
We can go back to burning fossil fuels without fear or guilt. Incandescent bulbs and plastic bags can be sold again. We can use more than one sheet to wipe ourselves which, no doubt, we were doing out of a sense of reverence to the environment. We can use coal, oil and gas to generate the electricity we all depend on and we can look forward to the provision of this wonderful human resource to the impoverished of the world which will allow them to raise their standard of living so that they too may enjoy the benefits of modern living. CO2, rather than being demonized, can reclaim its rightful place as an invisible, trace gas in the atmosphere essential to life on Earth. There is a rumour that our fruits and veggies adore the stuff.
Let us put asunder this insane episode of Apocalyptic Anxiety. No wonder the skeptic blogs are more fun to read: the news is so much better. And they turned out to be ‘spot on’ as well.
It’s a beautiful day in the neighbourhood. The truth has come out as we knew it would.
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