When Hasn't This Been the Case?

Report: CALAMITY CALLING: ‘Forget the debate over climate change. Calamity is already upon us’        

'Drastic climate changes have sparked economic dislocation, political discord, and even death. And it's happening right now, in nearly every corner of the planet. Above all, climate change — and what it means for life on Earth — is prompting fear and unease across the world'

       

               

Climate changes continuously. When hasn’t it been in a state of flux? The ‘fear and unease across the world’ is nowhere but in the imagination of the writer. People are not so easily frightened by climatic events that happen somewhere all the time. Our atmosphere is a dynamic and chaotic place. People seem to understand and accept that there are weather risks. It is a part of life. And the rational among us don’t think that humans control the weather or the climate.

The weather ‘experts’ are an endless source of entertainment. Meteorologists can help us with tomorrow’s weather and we sympathize with the uncertainty in their jobs. Climate scientists who accept the AGW paradigm on the other hand come across as cocky know-it-alls who even in the face of their failures continue to show a confidence in their views that is unwarranted. Something else drives scientists who ignore data that contradicts their position.

We watch in amazement as the predictions of AGW alarmists fail to materialize one after the other.

They predict rising temperatures with rising CO2 and the temps transition to a ‘negative rise’.

They predict an ice free Arctic for this year or that and Mother Nature doesn’t cooperate.

They predict in 2000 that snow will become a thing of the past and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere reaches a record extent for December 2012.

They predict warming polar regions and they cool.

They predict more extreme weather and the trends betray them.

They predict accelerating sea level rise and the tide gauges report that SLR is slowing.

Their models exaggerate the amount of warming over time and totally miss the turnaround that Mother Nature throws at them.

The Climate Calamity is the failure of the billion dollar global climate models. For $8 the Farmer’s Almanac gave a better prediction for winter 2013-14 than did the highly paid government agencies. 

Mother Nature is Laughing

Mother Nature has everyone confused. People in the same location can’t agree whether the weather is wetter or drier - both due to a warming atmosphere.

Extreme weather worries insurers, farmers

Miller estimated that Iowa has experienced one weather anomaly every four years — such as an unusually dry spring or wet summer — since 1980. That compares with a previous rate of one weather anomaly every 20 years.

"There's no doubt that we have a wetter (climate) that we're dealing with," he said.

Nov. 2012: Iowa scientists: Drought a sign of climate change

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- This year's drought is consistent with predictions that global climate change would bring about weather extremes including more frequent droughts, said a report released Monday.

Whatever the weather it’s CO2 wot done it. It has magic superpowers.

Our emissions of CO2 are supposed to be melting the sea ice surrounding Antarctica. Yet the sea ice around it continues to grow. These people were stuck in the ice during the Antarctic summer! Their mission was to document climate change in the area. Thanks to the rescue mission the whole world now knows that it is getting colder in Antarctica.

Climate-Science Boatpeople, In Search Of Global Warming Signs, Trapped In Thousands Of Kilometers Of Sea Ice!

Mother  Nature loves to serve humble pie to those who presume to know what our chaotic atmosphere will do next.

A Challenge to Warmists

Here is what CAGW alarmists have to do to convince me, a skeptic of CAGW, to take a closer look at what they are saying about the dangerous nature of the current climate.

Please support this statement with data.

As CO2 increases in the atmosphere extreme weather will become more severe and more frequent.

Here is how you can do this.

Show me that category 5 hurricanes - the most severe - constitute a larger percentage of all hurricanes that occur each year as CO2 has increased. That will show me that extreme weather is indeed becoming more severe.

Now show me that cat 5 hurricanes also are happening more frequently over time as CO2 has been increasing unabated in our atmosphere.

Here is the hurricane dataset maintained by NOAA, a government agency that collects and analyses hurricane data for the Atlantic Basin. This data is bought and paid for by the US taxpayer and thus is not subject to the influence of skeptics or the Koch brothers. It is however in the hands of warmists.

Chronological List of All Hurricanes

Should we be afraid of that data or embrace it?

Let me know your results.

This is what you must do to instil doubt  in my mind about my skepticism about CAGW.

Can you similarly elucidate for me what it is that the data must show in order to instill doubt in your mind about your acceptance of the reality of CAGW? What could falsify CAGW in your mind?

Cold as Hell

2nd Coldest U.S. Winter in 35 Years

“Cold as Hell: The Chilling Effect of Global Warming” – Huffington Post

Cute headline but...

Can there be another headline that more clearly indicates that Huffpo is not a good source of information?

Two contradictions in nine words. They are going to try and make you believe that A is not-A.

War is Peace.

Last time I inquired Hell is known for fire and brimstone. You are not going ice fishing with Satan.

Ignorance is Strength.

Isn’t warmth used to remove a chill?

Slavery is Freedom.

Huffpo likes to impersonate the Ministry of Truth in George Orwell’s 1984.

So what has happened to the heat trapping superpowers of the CO2 we keep dumping into the atmosphere? Remember the summer of 2012? Headlines were filled with global warming hysteria about the drought and raves about the heatwaves. So CO2 couldn’t trap the heat? What happened? Is CO2 on strike? Is it broken? Does it only work in the summer? Can’t find full time employment? Is there a hole in our CO2 blanket?

People with an agenda will twist themselves into a pretzel to save their cherished meme in the face of data to the contrary. Reality can be a burden to the fanatic when it doesn’t conform to their world view. Contortions to fix distortions can be fodder for comic relief.

Let’s put our ice cube tray full of water in the oven, turn it on and watch the ice cubes form. Turn on the heat I need to cool off.

For Huffpo, cue Donna Summer: Who do, who do you think you’re foolin’?

Huffpo, it’s time  to chill on global warming.

Not to be outdone we have the LA Times Headline: ‘Ice storm paradox: It’s colder because the Earth is warmer’

It is colder because the Earth is warmer. Do they hear themselves? Did they ever take a rudimentary course in logic or science?

Do they put their ice cube tray in the oven, turn it on and bake ice cubes?

According to the LATimes David Horsey,:

Put very simply, here is what the predominant science says: Average global temperatures have been rising in recent decades. Some of the warming could be part of a natural cycle but, almost certainly, increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere caused by the burning of fossil fuels are a pivotal factor in intensifying the phenomenon. The starkest evidence of the temperature jump is the rapid melting of the polar ice caps and the disappearance of the world’s glaciers.

Climate scientists have said another key signal to watch for is a dramatic shift in weather patterns. It is close to impossible to attribute any single weather event – a snowstorm, a tornado, a hurricane – to temperature rise, but, once extreme weather becomes normal and what has been normal is no longer the norm, we will know we are in the throes of change that is likely irreversible.

This guy is easy to mislead - a perfect shill for the ‘look out your window it’s climate change brought to you by CO2’ crowd. The alternative energy industry will love him. Does he own stock?

David doesn’t know that the data contradict the theory he just elucidated. How come we only get .39C rise in Global Mean Temp with an 82 ppm rise in CO2 in the last 60 years but get .58C rise in GMT with only an 18 ppm inflation of CO2 from 1894-1953? Seems like the increase in CO2 is cooling things off. This is the exact opposite of what should be occurring according to the theory. Therefore the theory is falsified. CO2 has nothing to do with the temperature. We owe CO2 an apology.

Rapid melting of ice caps? CO2 is everywhere. It is supposed to trap heat everywhere. In a warming world the tropical heat is supposed to make its way to the Arctic and melt the ice caps and flood coastal cities. We have been hearing such stories since the early 1900s. Still waiting for the flood. And now with expanding sea ice above normal for the time of year(summer) in the Antarctic and a rapid recovery of sea ice in the Arctic to a decade high this winter the polar ovens seem to be in need of repair.

So far it is the third coldest winter on record in the US. It appears that the heat trapping superpowers of CO2 are easily overcome by moving air masses. Like that has never happened before! Gee, do you think that could explain why we have hot here; cold there; heat distribution not so rare. Moving air masses tricking us into believing we are at fault. Mother Nature is so clever. Who’d thunk it. Moving air masses account for weird weather. You got your warm air moving up to Alaska from the tropics and cold air moving to Atlanta from the North. Like that has never happened before. A meandering jet stream is not just a modern occurrence. Think ice age. Besides the theory of CAGW predicts just the opposite. Middle latitude regions are supposed to get uniformly warmer.

Glaciers have been receding and expanding at different times over the last century. In the 1940s it was hot in the Arctic and glaciers were melting. In the 1960s and 70s when the global cooling scare was in vogue glaciers were expanding. In the present day some glaciers in Greenland are expanding and some are receding. This indicates a local climate change or they all would be in sync. Remember the Peterman Glacier in Greenland that spawned that enormous iceberg in summer 2012? Well, it has grown 3km since then.  Glaciers have grown in Europe and Asia. Here are some more that are growing. If the PLANET was warming they would all be receding.

David has imbibed the kool-aid on extreme weather. He sees severe weather as the result of climate change. Does he have any evidence that the storms of the present are any more severe or frequent than the storms of the past? A cursory reading of the newspapers of the past ought to convince anyone that there is nothing outside the bounds of natural variability going on.

David, why has the frequency 90F days decreased over the last 80 years? CO2 not working?

David: why do you suppose this headline appeared in  1954: Across The Globe, Weather Breaks All The Rules ? This is when CO2 was well below the magical tipping point CO2 number of 350 ppm.

When wouldn’t people describe the weather as weird, David? Pick a year when there was nothing but fluffy white clouds and gentle summer rain. Hello?

Thanks for the Confirmation

While reading comments on various articles put out by the sympathetic CAGW MSM one wanker will always challenge a skeptic to give a reference for the fact that was quoted. The claim is always not amenable to the CAGW meme. Often the claim is that the global mean temperature stopped rising 15+ years ago despite the rapid increase in CO2 in the atmosphere during that time.

The MSM has carried stories about this ‘pause’ or hiatus’ in the warming and asked CAGW scientists for an explanation. So far at least 10 have been offered. The offerings are interesting because they affirm the existence of the lack of warming for 15+ years. It is now acknowledged by both ‘sides’ to be real. Otherwise there is nothing to offer an explanation for.

The first seven offered include: 1) Low Solar Activity; 2) Oceans Ate Warming; 3) Chinese Coal Use; 4) Montreal Protocol; 5) Readjusted past temps to claim ‘pause’ never existed 6) Volcanoes 7) Decline in Water Vapor.  Pacific Trade Wind strengthening is #8. Google will help you verify this summary.

The 10 explanations indicate that the science is not settled and the experts do not agree. Do they have any idea what they are talking about? So much for consensus. Since no one explanation is a clear front runner the debate has just begun. And further since the global climate models did not anticipate the bend in the runway they have fallen off the catwalk and been discredited by Mother Nature. CO2 is not the superpower heat trapping gas it has been made out to be. It turns out that Mother Nature is a CAGW DENIER!!!

How ironic!

The settled science is in a state of chaos just like the atmosphere it seeks to understand. The global climate models couldn’t predict ‘the pause’ relieving CO2 of its starring role in the climate drama and replacing it with what? Perhaps a more NATURAL cause?

And then along comes Miskolczi  with yet another reason to explain the pause. It will be no surprise to him since his theory predicts a plateau. It only takes one who is correct to blow the CAGW meme to pieces.

Significance of the Pause

Mother Nature stopped raising the global mean temperature 17 plus years ago. CAGW alarmists call it a ‘pause’ as this unexpected state of affairs cannot alter their dedication to the man made climate change meme. Alarmists cling to their belief that the warming will continue soon. Skeptics point out that the global climate models failed to anticipate this state of affairs and that this means that both the models and the theory upon which they were based are bogus. Inappropriately, CO2 has been given the starring role in the climate drama since it is believed to be a powerful heat trapping GreenHouse Gas(GHG).

Seven ‘explanations’ for the pause were quickly brought forward by those trying to defend the CAGW meme against skeptical microscopes.

Climate Depot Analysis: ‘There have been at least seven separate explanations for the standstill in global warming’ – 1) Low Solar Activity; 2) Oceans Ate Warming; 3) Chinese Coal Use; 4) Montreal Protocol; 5) Readjusted past temps to claim ‘pause’ never existed 6) Volcanoes 7) Decline in Water Vapor

Now there are 8.

Stronger Pacific winds explain global warming hiatus: study

And as we have learned to expect this paper is the exact opposite of what was found seven years ago as was pointed out over at Wattsupwiththat.com. Strong winds/weak winds: do we really know which, if either, is the correct view? Among the convinced this uncertainty is called the ‘settled science’.

The minute anyone offers explanations for the ‘pause’ they are admitting both the existence of the pause and that there is something unexpected to be explained. If factors other than CO2 must be considered to explain the ‘pause’ then the assumed high sensitivity of the climate to changes in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere becomes suspect.

This means that whatever has contributed to the pause, whether it be one or more factors, that those factors are capable of overwhelming whatever increase to warming that CO2 might be contributing.

It also means that the theory upon which the global climate models arrive at their apocalyptic future scenarios is incorrect.

This would suggest that the science is not settled, the debate is not over and the consensus is wrong.

It is still correct to say that we do not understand how the climate functions. CO2 may play a part but if it does it is in a much more limited role than heretofore assumed. Perhaps it should be assigned a bit part in the climate drama or not be included in the cast at all.

It turns out that we have spent billions of dollars reacting to a an imaginary crisis because we chose to believe that there was a consensus and that the consensus was correct. We failed to listen to dissenting voices and missed the real truth. How silly we were. Future generations will look back and marvel at how we managed to dupe ourselves.

For those who still cling to the CAGW meme Mother Nature has elevated her finger in acknowledgement of their intransigence in the face of real world evidence.The global climate models have fallen off the runway and lie in tears at the tears in their computer code. The CAGW meme has collapsed and revealed our continued anemic understanding of how the climate actually functions.

This pretty much exposes the man made global warming narrative as a man made delusion. Alarmists tricked themselves into believing a theory that served their political agenda to increase government control over natural resources. Shall we leave the alarmists in Wonderland? They do seem happy there.

Alarmists have created an insulated Wonderland in which they reassure each other that there is a consensus the science is settled and on their side and it is time to act to save the world. Alarmists have created their own greenhouse and trapped themselves inside with their own hot air .No wonder they are uncomfortable.

Well, well, well, explaining the 'pause'

Alarmists had suspicions all along that they were wrong. Skeptics are now being vindicated as alarmists desperately search for the missing heat.

This 2007 ClimateGate quote seems timely: "What if climate change appears to be just mainly a multidecadal natural fluctuation? They'll kill us probably..."

ClimateGate email 1682

What if climate change appears to be just mainly a multidecadal natural fluctuation? They'll kill us probably...[Via Barry Woods; Tommy Wills, Swansea University to the mailing list for tree-ring data forum ITRDB, 28 Mar 2007]

‘Mind blowing paper’ blames ENSO for Global Warming Hiatus

‘If La Niña events can stop global warming, then how much do El Niño events contribute? 50%? The climate science community is actually hurting itself when they fail to answer the obvious questions’

Study Ties Global Warming ‘Hiatus’ to Pacific Cooldown:

A Cooler Pacific May Be Behind Recent Pause In Global Warming : NPR

New Study: ‘Sophisticated computer models’ reveal ‘Just 8.2% of the Earth’s surface, in the Pacific Ocean, may be responsible for the global warming ‘hiatus’

'It argues that not only could the current hiatus in the warming be due to natural causes: so also could the rapidity of the warming from the 1970s until the late 1990s.'

Leading UN IPCC Scientist Concedes Oceans Have ‘Profound Effect On Average Global Surface Air Temperature’

Those Stubborn Facts: NPR Confirms Those '97%-Climate-Scientists' Were 100% Wrong On Global Warming

Is the Pacific Ocean Responsible for a Pause in Global Warming?: Scientific American

another paper blames ENSO for global warming pause, calling it ‘… a major control knob governing Earth’s temperature.’ | Watts Up With That?

So much so apparently that the oceans can overwhelm any contribution from CO2.

Somehow the heat trapping gas CO2 that puts the ‘atmosphere on steroids’  was unable to keep the Pacific warm. Is this more evidence that CO2 is not the thermostat controlling our climate?

Do we owe CO2 an apology?

More well, well, well from the recent IPCC AR5 WGI. What do we find in Chapter 2 on weather extremes?  They can’t find any patterns emerging that would indicate that CO2 is making the weather worse. So much for the ‘supercharged atmosphere on steroids’ description!

IPCC Calls Off Planetary Emergency?

And now there are ten....

Update: Excuse number 10 for the global warming ‘pause’ — ‘Coincidence!’, according to NASA scientists: ‘Coincidence, conspired to dampen warming trends’

Climate Depot Analysis: ‘There have been at least nine  ten separate explanations for the standstill in global warming’ – 1) Low Solar Activity; 2) Oceans Ate Warming; 3) Chinese Coal Use; 4) Montreal Protocol; 5) Readjusted past temps to claim ‘pause’ never existed 6) Volcanoes 7) Decline in Water Vapor 8) Pacific Trade Winds 9)  ’Stadium Waves’ 10) ‘Coincidence’

Update Feb. 28, 2014: Der Spiegel On 15-Year Pause: ‘Biggest Mystery In Climate Science’: ‘Climate models had never expected the pause: Only 3 of 114 climate simulations were able to reproduce the trend of the past years, the IPCC concludes in its latest report. The reason for the deviation between models and observations is unclear.’

And the beat goes on. Isn’t it embarrassing when the climate models of the ‘settled science’ can’t negotiate the curve that Mother Nature put in their path and they fall off the runway? Billions wasted on the crime of the century. Politicians heeded the wrong scientists. How do we prevent such descent into pseudo-science in the future? Our resources are precious. They should not be wasted chasing a phantom of the atmosphere.

Climate "Experts" Growing List of Excuses For Global Warming 'Pause' & Official Climate Model Failures