It is no longer global warming because it isn't.

It is climate change because it does.

Men are never so likely to settle a question rightly as when they discuss it freely.

— Thomas B. Macaulay (1800-1859), Essay on Southey's Colloquies

All of us could take a lesson from the weather. It pays no attention to criticism.


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Sunday, May 13, 2018

The Trending of Climate Trends

By any climate metric that you choose to examine the effect of a dangerous human influence on the climate cannot be found over the last 60 years when the human emissions of carbon dioxide(CO2) has increased most rapidly in the atmosphere. See references below.

This is not to say that humans have no influence on the climate but our influence tends to be local and non-threatening. The contraction of the snows of Kilimanjaro in Africa are an example of local land use change that has altered the climate on the top of the mountain. Snow disappears because it melts or sublimates and is not replaced because of decreasing precipitation. At the top of Kilimanjaro temperatures rarely get above -4C.  It is tough to melt anything at that temperature but during the day the snow will sublimate and if there is not enough moisture in the air then the snow will not be replaced. The land on and surrounding the mountain has suffered deforestation. This will result in less moisture in the air from transpiration. Less moisture, less snow, disappearing snow. Humans also increase the air temperature in cities due to the concentration of heat absorbing materials of buildings and roadways which will radiate that heat into the air. The machinery of the city will also contribute their heat to the city’s air. Cities are routinely warmer than the surrounding countryside due to this phenomenon and can create a warming bias in temperature readings from weather stations located in cities(UHI). So humans do influence their local climates but climate change is not about these phenomena but about the alleged heat trapping powers of greenhouse gases(GHGs) such as carbon dioxide(CO2).

The trends in climate metrics over the last 60 years are either steady, flat or decreasing meaning  we have seen it all before. CO2 concentration has risen by 87 parts per million over the last 6 decades.

If the trend began prior to those 60 years it has not accelerated. Acceleration during the last 60 years would be a human fingerprint on the thermostat.

Temperatures would not have slowed then reversed since 2001 such that there has now been no increase in the global mean temperature(GMT) for over 18 years even as CO2 has continued to rise unabated in the air.

Sea levels have been increasing steadily since the end of the little ice age(LIA) until 2002 when they started to decelerate. A human influence over the last 60 years would have shown an accelerating trend indicative of faster melting glaciers and ice caps.

There has been no increasing trend in extreme weather of any kind over the last 60 years. Either there is no trend or its is negative which is actually a positive. Less severe weather with increasing CO2. Thank-you CO2. Or CO2 has nothing to do with it and the correlations are just incidental and not causal.

The biggest potential contributors to Sea Level Rise are the ice caps of GreenLand and Antarctica. But recent scientific studies report that both are GAINING ice mass.




There is no reason to FEAR a deluge of our coastal cities from our polar regions. They are NOT
currently warming despite the fact that CO2 continues to rise unabated in our atmosphere.

As CO2 rises the polar regions were expected to be among the fastest warming places on Earth. Yet this is NOT happening. These folks can attest to that:

This is contrary to the expectations of the CO2 centric theory upon which our Global Climate Models are based. Therefore the predictions of the GCMs can be discounted as speculation without foundation.

It is colder in Antarctica. This has been confirmed by the falling temperature trends measured across the vast expanse of the East Antarctic ice sheet. The west Antarctic ice sheet(WAIS), which has been dispatching walls of ice into the Amundsen sea and sending the western fear and guilt media into hysterics, receives its warmth from geothermal sources in the form of a series of under ice volcanoes.

At the top of the world alarmist experts have been predicting the final demise of the Arctic summer sea ice for decades without success. Newspaper articles of the past remind us of similar periods of Arctic warmth which worried scientists back in the day. They too warned of melting ice caps and rising seas which would flood our coastal cities. We still await the deluge. Can we be excused for wondering if perhaps there are cyclical processes at work in the Arctic which our esteemed climate scientists have not yet pinpointed? The warming worries of the past passed with the onset of the cooling scare of the 1970s and re-emerged with the warming of the late 20th century. Our current crop of GCMs seem just as incapable of selecting the proper date for Nature’s magic trick of disappearing summer Arctic sea ice. Will it take a solar cycle maximum far greater than anything humans have witnessed in order to accomplish the feat?

With climate trends not trending in their favor man made climate change alarmists are shown to be political manipulators and opportunists with an agenda who have latched onto climate change as a POGO issue which they fancy can be used to increase control over people and resources. But the evidence above destroys their case and introduces POGO-who-is-NOT-us. Climate alarmists have not made their case and are doing great harm in wasting the very resources they claim to care about so much by misallocating them in pursuit of a crisis that doesn’t exist. Climate alarmists are really Luddites and Victorians in disguise who are afraid that somewhere someone is doing something without their consent. They do not trust their fellow humans to be good guardians of the planet’s resources without their imagined superior knowledge and guidance(overwatch). They fear the chaos of the marketplace and think that central planning will give better results than people free to commit capitalist acts exchanging value for value. History does not report well on central planning. The moral superiority of the free market has not yet been detected by their humanitarian radar.

Further Reading:










Mar 16 globe
















image














Because of an increased focus on the climate in recent years people think the weather is getting worse. They need to look at what Mother Nature is ACTUALLY doing rather than buying the hype from hysterical alarmists with a pecuniary interest in purveying falsehoods. Take a chill pill people. Mother Nature has actually been less truculent over the past 60 years of human CO2 emissions than she was before. Perhaps she has undergone a ‘change of life’.




Friday, February 2, 2018

CNBC and Trump 29 Jan 2018


  • In an interview with Piers Morgan on Britain's ITV News, the president said the world was cooling and warming at the same time and that claims of melting ice caps haven't come true.
  • Ten different climate scientists contacted by The Associated Press said the president was not accurate about climate change.GYI0000710288.jpg
Uriel Sinai | Getty Images
President Donald Trump's description of the climate on planet Earth doesn't quite match what data show and scientists say.
In an interview with Piers Morgan airing Sunday on Britain's ITV News, the president said the world was cooling and warming at the same time and that claims of melting ice caps haven't come true.
TRUMP: "There is a cooling, and there's a heating. I mean, look, it used to not be climate change, it used to be global warming. That wasn't working too well because it was getting too cold all over the place."
1936 USA – Cold and Hot - when CO2 was lower

Ten different climate scientists contacted by The Associated Press said the president was not accurate about climate change. Rutgers University climate scientist Jennifer Francis responded in an email: "Clearly President Trump is relying on alternative facts to inform his views on climate change. Ice on the ocean and on land are both disappearing rapidly, and we know why: increasing greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels that trap more heat and melt the ice. "
Simplistic nonsense from Francis.

THE FACTS: The world hasn't had a cooler than average year since 1976 and hasn't had a cooler than normal month since the end of 1985, according to more than 135 years of temperature records kept by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
And what about prior to 135 years ago.

Dated to 4000BC discovery of these artifacts indicate it was much warmer in the past when  CO2 was at lower concentrations than now

10,000 To 5,000 Years Ago, Global Sea Levels Were 3 Meters Higher, Temperatures 4-6° C Warmer - and what was the CO2 concentration then? Higher or lower? ~280 ppm

The last four years have been the four hottest years on record globally, with 2010 the hottest year, according to NOAA. Every year in the 21st century has been at least three quarters of a degree (0.4 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 20th century average and in the top 25 hottest years on record, NOAA records show.

And what about the past? See above.
And while a good chunk of the United States had a frigid snap recently, most of the rest of the world was far warmer than normal, according to temperature records.
Far colder than normal in Siberia - Siberia is a big place

Zeke Hausfather of the Berkeley Earth temperature monitoring program — initially funded by non-scientists who doubt that the world is warming — said in an email: "The world has been warming steadily over the past 50 years, with 17 of the past 18 years being the warmest since records began in the 1850s. It is not accurate to say that the climate has been 'cooling as well as warming'."
See above list.


TRUMP: "The ice caps were going to melt, they were going to be gone by now, but now they're setting records. They're at a record level."
THE FACTS: It is a bit more nuanced, but not quite right.
While a small number of experts a decade ago had predicted that Arctic would be free of summer sea ice by now, most mainstream scientists and the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change did not, instead they said Arctic sea ice would shrink, which it has, said Pennsylvania State University ice scientist Richard Alley. Most scientists, including the director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, are predicting that the Arctic will be free of summer sea ice sometime around the 2040s.
Al Gore said it would be gone in 5 or 10 years back in 2008. Still there but maybe 2018 - your last chance Al.
The Arctic set a record for the lowest amount of sea ice in the winter, when sea ice usually grows to its maximum levels, in March 2017. In 2012, the Arctic set a record for lowest sea ice levels. Sea ice recovered slightly from that record and in 2017 in September, the annual low was only the eighth lowest on record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. But the 10 lowest years of sea ice have been all in the last 11 years. Arctic sea ice is declining at a rate of 13.2 percent per decade, according to NASA.

Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer said the Antarctic sea ice pack, less directly influenced by global climate change, varies from year to year. Antarctica hit a record low for sea ice in March 2017, the same month the Arctic hit a record winter low. Antarctic sea ice also reached a record high in 2014.

"Both of the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing hundreds of billions of tons of ice per year. Sea ice continues to decline significantly in the Arctic decade by decade, and the thickness of Arctic ice is now less than 50 percent of what it was 40 years ago," National Snow and Ice Data Center scientist Ted Scambos said in an email.

All scientists quoted in the article are warmists. Did they consult any skeptical scientists for balance? Did they report what they said if they did?  Or is CNBC controlling the narrative.



Sunday, January 28, 2018

Weather is NOT Climate











The Adaptability of Anthropogenic Global Warming



Some species, such as Smith's dwarf chameleon, adjust their colors for camouflage in accordance with the vision of the specific predator species (bird or snake) by which they are being threatened.

AGW has chameleon abilities to adapt to the criticism of those skeptical of the CO2 centric theory of global warming to extend its life.

When the theory is advertised as an Arctic sea ice melter and yet the ice continues to survive its ‘expiration date the date is simply pushed out further into the future. How many failures will it take before doubt about the validity of the theory begins to incubate?

When the theory is advertised as a polar bear population reduction machine but polar bear populations increase even as sea ice decreases how long before capitulation by the theory. promoters?

When the theory is advertised as snow melt and yet snow continues to fall and the snow cover extent continues to increase in winter even as CO2 continues to increase unabated in the atmosphere how long before rational scientists should admit there is a problem with the theory?

When the theory predicts a world with warming winters but cold winters continue to appear even as CO2 continues to increase unabated in the atmosphere how long before rational scientists begin to look for alternative explanations for the observations?

Trying to disguise the cold as a manifestation of warming is a lot like a chameleon changing its colors to hide from its enemies.

Can you see me now?

How about now?

Monday, January 8, 2018

Change is what the climate does



Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright;
The snow is falling somewhere and somewhere winds are light
And somewhere land is flooding, and somewhere there is drought
The climate she’s a changing is what the NORMAL’s all about

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