Jay Leno made a joke out of the recent revelations about the leaked IPCC AR5 document finding that the sun may have a greater influence on climate change than has previously been acknowledged.
...Jay Leno: A leak from a new U.N. scientific study says the Sun plays a far
greater role in global warming than previously thought. The Sun and
global warming. Always the last place you’d think.
A
string of recent findings are already pointing to the important role
that the sun has played in the late 20th century warming from 1976 to
1997. It is this warming that has spurred the development of the IPCC
to gather and summarize the science of climate change for the world’s
governments so that a consistent policy of mitigation could be developed
for adherence.
The
Global Climate Models (GCMs) that the IPCC rely on for its scary
predictions for the future direction of the climate all give a starring
role to the heat trapping GreenHouse Gas(GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2). CO2
has been demonized as an enemy of the people and as such it has been
targeted for reduction in concentration in the air. As someone pointed
out modern humans are the first ones to be living in an era of CO2
concentration of 395ppm. Why that should be a problem remains a mystery
to me as our commercial greenhouse operators regularly pump 2 to 3 times
that much into their facilities because the plants they are trying to
grow develop faster, stronger and better under such high concentrations
of CO2. We can see these positive results
with increased growth in our forests and increased crop yields in our
fruits, grains and vegetables. Increased CO2 concentration has benefits.
CO2 is green. But the IPCC seems to think that the heat trapping
characteristics of GHGs will generate positive feedbacks within the
atmosphere that will enhance the GHE and raise the future temperature to
a dangerous level unacceptable for human life. Human emissions of CO2
are seen as the cause and we must act now to curtail those emissions or
we will become human fricassee as we cook ourselves in our own
atmosphere. Scary! Bummer!
But CO2 is losing favor
as the main driver of climate change. The global warming that persisted
through the 1980s and 1990s has not continued into the 21st century. In
fact, it has been absent for the last 15 years. Thus the GCMs of the IPCC have overestimated the ‘sensitivity’ of the climate to increases in CO2 concentration.
The sun
as an important driver of climate change has been increasing in
popularity in the scientific journals as a spate of recent studies have
confirmed. The sun’s output has tracked the behaviour of global warming
over the last century with a very high correlation coefficient that exceeds that of CO2 by a wide margin. Some recent supporting papers are listed below.
A
series of papers has come out detailing the increased amount of
sunshine that reached the surface of the earth in the latter part of the
20th century. This large increase in sunshine has been recorded in
North America, Greece and the Balkan Peninsula.
And what could account for this increase in sunshine? Why a decrease in cloud cover. And is there any evidence for that?
Some
scientists think that sunspots can be used as a guide to the effect
that the sun will exert on the Earth’s climate going forward. If these
scientists are correct the Earth could be entering a period of cooling
that will rival that of the Maunder Minimum from 1645-1715. Brrrr!
Other
solar influences that can act as moderators on the Earth’s climate
include El Nino and the ocean cycles like the PDO and AMO.
And there are those who think we are going to experience cooler times ahead.
The climate affected by the sun. Who’d a thunk it!
Well, gollly!
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