“Climate change is no longer some far-off problem; it is happening here, it is happening now,”Obama said. “We’re not acting fast enough.”
Is this an enlightening statement? Hasn’t the climate always been changing for the 4.5 billion years of the planet's existence? Can the POTUS name a year when climate change wasn’t happening? And he thinks we can stop it by controlling our CO2 emissions? It will be as effective as naked women dancing for rain.
Was the POTUS in Alaska when he made that statement? Shall we test those statements against reality?
Let’s pick on sea level rise(SLR) as our proxy for the Church of What’s Happening Now.
We can go to the PSMSL website to see a map of all the tide gauges that have been or are being used to measure the rise of the seas.
The tide gauges around Alaska do not present a clear picture as some show the oceans falling and some show the oceans rising. What gives?
Tuvalu is often regarded as one of the ground zero locations for global warming as it is a low lying group of islands in the South Pacific only 15 feet above sea level at its highest point. There have been many stories portending its demise beneath the rising seas. So what is happening there?
Tuvalu Devastation Over The Last 70 Years - pictures are worth a thousand words. Not much change over the last 70 years.
Tuvalu – Still Drowning After All These Years - back in 1988 SLR in Tuvalu was a concern. The tide gauge in Tuvalu shows no SLR. Have a look.
Guardian Shock News : Tuvalu Was Evacuated Twelve Years Ago - the ever sympathetic Guardian reported in 2001 that the world’s first climate refugees were ready to depart Tuvalu in 2002. Tuvalu is still there.
New York Times : Tuvalu To Drown - in 2007 the NYT gave Tuvalu a 50 year reprieve. Did the NYT figure that out by looking at the tide gauge data for Tuvalu? See above. There is no SLR in Tuvalu.
Real Estate Prices In Tuvalu Unaffected By Impending Armageddon - this one is a dead giveaway that the people in Tuvalu know there is no rising concern with SLR. No panic selling in Tuvalu. Why not?
Scamming For Climate Money - and now we get to the crux of the climate change due to human emissions of CO2 via the burning of fossil fuels nonsense. There is money to be had from countries who can be made to feel guilty over their CO2 emissions. Have the leaders of the developed world bought into the imagined crisis to assuage their guilty consciences or to redistribute the wealth of their citizens?
Shock News : Scientists Surprised To Learn That They Have Been Lying All Along - and it turns out that far from shrinking due to the encroachment of the oceans these island atolls have been growing.
Tuvalu isn’t going Too-da-loo due to an ocean uprising. To put modern SLR in perspective let us look at SLR since the Ice Age.
SLR in the Holocene
The last glacial period lasted from 110,000 to 12000 years ago. Then, for reasons not well understood the Earth warmed, ice sheets melted, sea levels rose and humans began to flourish. Since the end of last Ice Age and for the past 12000 years sea level has been rising as the land based ice receded and returned to the oceans from which it originated. As the graph below shows natural sea level rise was on average 11 mm/yr. In order for our current SLR to be unprecedented it would have to exceed 11mm/yr. As can be seen from the graph the current rate of SLR is much smaller.
A graph at the University of Colorado shows SLR to be 3.3mm/yr. NOAA admits to 1.7-1.8mm/yr. The average of all PSMSL tide gauges gives a value of 1.1mm/yr. And if you only take into account those tide gauges that are currently reporting the value is .63mm/yr. All of these values fall well within the upper bound of natural variability of 11mm/yr set in the Holocene.
These values are NOT accelerating and NOT unprecedented so who has been lying to us? Unless SLR shows acceleration at a rate that exceeds 11mm/yr over the last 60 years of human emissions how can it be said that climate change is happening now and humans are at fault?
The people in the Maldives, Vanuatu and Tuvalu are not concerned. They keep building airports, resorts and hotels to attract tourists to their island paradise. Do those touristy pictures present a picture of an apocalypse waiting in the wings?
Aren’t we all in the same bathtub? How can SLR be different in different locations? SLR can be difficult to measure because of erosion, land subsistence, land subduction, drained aquifers and land rising due to tectonic motion. (List not meant to be exhaustive)
But here are some recent studies that should inform even the most skeptical of alarmists that coastal cities and low lying islands are in no danger from an ocean uprising. Contemporary SLR does not support the alarm of President Obama. SLR has formed its own consensus and it doesn’t support the Chicken Little Obamanations of the POTUS.
“So let me sum up. We know that human activity is changing the climate. That is beyond dispute. Everything else is politics if people are denying the facts of climate change. We can have a legitimate debate about how we are going to address this problem; we cannot deny the science,” he said.
How do we know that human activity is changing the climate? Only if the changes happening during the last 60 years of human CO2 emissions are unprecedented and accelerating. SLR is NOT cooperating with his beliefs. The President is either ignorant or lying. Neither becomes the office.
REFERENCES:
Sea Level Fraud – Worse Than It Seems - fraud is the new normal in climate science .63mm for currently active tide gauge stations
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