It is no longer global warming because it isn't.

It is climate change because it does.

Men are never so likely to settle a question rightly as when they discuss it freely.

— Thomas B. Macaulay (1800-1859), Essay on Southey's Colloquies

All of us could take a lesson from the weather. It pays no attention to criticism.


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Monday, September 23, 2013

The World is Defrosting

This is how Prof Neville Nicholls of Monash University, Australia, put it.

The world is defrosting.

Which explains why the NWP through the Arctic was ice bound this summer.

Which explains why Krejci said he was worried they would get trapped in the ice like the Karluk did back in 1913.

Which explains why Arctic has 60% more sea ice in 2013 than was present in the record low year of 2012 at the same time of year.

Which explains why the high Arctic (>80N) has been experiencing below normal temperatures for 12 years.


Which explains why there is no increase in Greenland ice sheet temperatures.

Which explains why the Greenland ice sheet is growing.

Which explains why Alaska has been cooling for the last decade at the rate of -2.4C.

Which explains why the Antarctic has set a record for largest sea ice extent ever.

Which explains why Antarctica is gaining ice mass.

Which explains why East Antarctica glaciers are growing.

Which explains why East Antarctica and the South pole have been cooling for 30 years.

Which explains why people are moving to Antarctica in droves.

Which explains why the Northern Hemisphere had the largest snow extent in December of 2012.

Which explains why kids still know what snow is.

Which explains why Oymyakon set the record for coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere last winter. (2012-2013).

Which explains why thousands of farm animals froze to death in South America this winter.

Which explains why Feynman said: Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts.




In A Nutshell

In advance of the release of the final draft of the IPCC AR5 SPM on Friday Sep. 27, 2013 here is my own summary of the ‘crisis’ through the warning words of astute observers and the charlatans they admonish us about.

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed — and hence clamorous to be led to safety — by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." H.L. Mencken

Club of Rome: "In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill....All these dangers are caused by human intervention....and thus the “real enemy, then, is humanity itself....believe humanity requires a common motivation, namely a common adversary in order to realize world government. It does not matter if this common enemy is “a real one or….one invented for the purpose."

A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes. Mark Twain, (attributed)

Christine Stewart, former Canadian Environment Minister: “No matter if the science is all phony, there are collateral environmental benefits.... climate change [provides] the greatest chance to bring about justice and equality in the world.”

Timothy Wirth, U.S./UN functionary, former elected Democrat Senator: “We’ve got to ride the global-warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.”

"The desire to save humanity is always a false front for the urge to rule it" -- H L Mencken

Colorful Calamities

Global Warming alarmists  are very good at creating colorful and memorable (is this their motive?) analogies of the alleged poor state of the climate.



Weak heart. High fat diet. Cancer. All the contemporary flag raisers. Boy, is the earth ever sick. Or is it these observers who are delusional?

These amateur diagnosticians have failed to consult Mother Nature.

She is saying that temperatures stopped rising 15 years ago, hurricanes and tornadoes are ess frequent and less severe, there has been no change in flood behaviour and droughts are of shorter duration and less severe than those experienced during the 1930s and 1950s. Mother Nature is full of good news about a climate that is no worse than that of the past. In many ways it is better.

Mother Nature has started Donna Summers' tune on the iPod for the benefit of the above commentators.

Who do, who do you think you’re foolin’?

Mother Nature is a CAGW denier.

Science NOT Settled

After hearing almost daily for 25 years that the science is settled, the globe is warming and humans are at fault the UN’s biased clearinghouse of information on climate change has been forced to recognize that the warming ceased 15 years ago.


Global warming: "The term implies that the whole globe is warming but the whole globe is not warming at the same rate. It's warming much faster in northern areas," Miller said.
What scientists are trying to figure out is why. Is climate change a natural phenomenon? Or is it a product of burning excess fossil fuels?


You mean the science isn’t settled after all? Can you hear Guber? Well, golllly. Surprise! Surprise! Surprise!


"Some are saying it's going to be a huge influence, some are saying a little bit, some are saying no. And that's where some of the controversy comes in," Miller said.
Scientists say that is because climate change must be studied over a period of hundreds and even thousands of years.


So, our experts don’t know what they are talking about. We need to study more. It is good to see this admission beginning to emerge into the scientific discourse. It is long overdue as skeptics have been pointing out the flaws in the models for years. Our fretting over CO2 is now in question. We have spent billions on alternative energy for little benefit except for the crony capitalists who feed at the public trough. The arrogance of the IPCC has been a very expensive escapade in the annals of science.


The commonsense reaction to this should be that it is not the climate that needs fixing but the climate models. And some humility from climate scientists might not come amiss. The certainties in which they express themselves have instead been shown by the evidence of nature to be only expressions of how little they know. The prime purpose of the IPCC is not the disinterested pursuit of knowledge, however, but rather keeping the climate-change show on the road.


The climate models forecast much higher temperatures with increasing CO2 concentrations than we have experienced to date. This means the models are wrong. When that happens science says: modify or abandon the theory generating your incorrect predictions.


CO2 has been unable to trap the heat in accordance with model predictions. It is not keeping to the script that the IPCC has mapped out for it. Is it broken? Has it lost its super powers? Is kryptonite in the air sapping its strength? Does it only trap summer heat? Is it only a seasonal worker? Can’ find full time employment? Has it hopped the jet stream to a warmer clime? Is there a hole in our CO2 blanket?


Or has it been miscast as the model ‘star’ when it shouldn’t even be in the cast?  


In any case the models are wrong as they stand. The behaviour of global temperatures over the last decade and a half lend credence to this view which means that Mother Nature herself is a CAGW denier.


Somewhere someone commented that CAGW is when scientists treat common weather as unusual. Hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and drought are common although unwelcome weather phenomena and have always been around. Extreme weather did not begin with the late 20th century temperature rise. Rising CO2 has not manifest more frequent and/or more severe storms than have occurred in the past. In fact, the records for most severe weather have all been set at levels of CO2 below the current ‘supercharged’ atmospheric range. If CO2 has nefarious superpowers why is this still the case?


The science is not settled and some political opportunists and activist have treid to make use of this confusion to further their own political ends.


Club of Rome: "In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill....All these dangers are caused by human intervention....and thus the “real enemy, then, is humanity itself....believe humanity requires a common motivation, namely a common adversary in order to realize world government. It does not matter if this common enemy is “a real one or….one invented for the purpose."


Christine Stewart, former Canadian Environment Minister: “No matter if the science is all phony, there are collateral environmental benefits.... climate change [provides] the greatest chance to bring about justice and equality in the world.”


Timothy Wirth, U.S./UN functionary, former elected Democrat Senator: “We’ve got to ride the global-warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.”


Truth about the real world is irrelevant to these people. Other goals are more important.  Anthropogenic Global Warming, whether true or false, is but a means to an end. By exposing the shortcomings of the climate models and thus the theory behind them skeptics are serving mankind in its quest for truth about the real world and at the same time trying to redirect limited funds toward attainable goals.


Mother Nature is still in control of the climate and it is long past the time that humans acknowledge our powerlessness before her.


” … In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing
with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the
long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
From the 3rd IPCC report, Section 14.2 “The Climate System”, page 774.

In 2001, the IPCC acknowledged a humility to which they need to return.


Unfortunately, the certainty with which political activists in both the scientific community and in society at large have pursued expensive and unnecessary solutions to the non-problem of climate change has led Obama, in his second term, to adopt regulations that will wreak havoc with the energy sector and cause energy prices to soar. This will be much appreciated by the poor among us. In addition, emitting CO2 in quantities beyond your allotted quota will brand you a criminal in the brave new world of Obama’s implementation of 1984. This must be stopped.


Will the damage done to the State’s of his Democrat colleagues be enough to temper the assault on the living standards of the average American? Americans will need to speak loudly to their representatives to cause a POTUS backlash. For this my breath will not be held.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Pedal to Save the Arctic

Does the Arctic need saving? These people seem to think so.

So what has been happening in the Arctic in 2013? Any need for worry?

Ask these two adventurers who have recently experienced the 2013 state of the Arctic first hand.

“Two French men, Sébastien Roubinet and Vincent Berthet , who set out on a trek to the North Pole in July in a wind catamaran, announced today that they are blocked in the Arctic. A Russian ice-breaker has been dispatched to help them.”

“The goal was to make it to Spitzberg in the Svalbard archipelago in Norway, via the North Pole and observe the state of melting ice that has gone on over the past years.

Or how about chatting with these four Vancouverites who decided to row through the NorthWest Passage this year. Check out their blog for some great pics of grizzlies and muskox.


The Arctic sea ice has recovered from its record low in September 2012 with a record ice gain since then.

There is an annual guessing game as to how much ice will remain at the yearly minimum. You can check up on that here.

According to the Danish Meteorological Institute 2013 has been the coldest Arctic year on record. You can check that out here.

It seems that someone even before our time has been worried about the impending meltdown in the Arctic. It is not a new worry and we are still waiting for the disaster to follow. Many experts have seen their predictions invalidated by Mother Nature. It will be the Sierra Club of Canada this year, among others, whose prediction of an ice free Arctic will be spoiled by Mother Nature.  



The Arctic is fine but pedal away. It is good exercise.

Ice Free in the Arctic 2013

So says the Sierra Club of Canada and Secretary of State John Kerry although the Sierra Club hedged their bet with some wiggle room.

Let us hear Balki Bartokomous express himself on the subject of whether this expert prediction will come to pass.

"Well, of course not, don't be ridiculous!"

Balki has an unblemished record of anti-expert predictions. Doomsayers have yet to score.

The experts have been wrong before.






But even if all the sea ice in the Arctic disappears this summer(2013) so what? It has happened in the past and we are still here.

However since the high Arctic (>80N) has been cooling for the last 12 years imminent loss of all sea ice this summer seems quite unlikely. Is it unfair that Balki knew that when he made his famous comment?

Current data indicate that Greenland is not warming and that Alaska is cooling. A peer reviewed study has determined that Greenland was much warmer in the past. The melting ‘scare’ of summer 2012 has been replaced with snow in late July on the Greenland ice cap.

All the fuss about the Arctic getting warmer seems to be incorrect. Every year there is a contest to predict the Arctic ice extent at the end of the summer. Results can be followed here.

This increases my confidence in Balki’s counter prediction.  

Apparently, the CO2 in the Arctic is not good at trapping summer heat as the 2013 winter sea ice has reached levels not seen in a decade. It has almost reached the levels of 1971.

After the record low sea ice extent attained in the summer of 2012 the warmists among us are likely to be disappointed with the summer of 2013.

So what has been happening in the Arctic in 2013? Any need for worry?

Ask these two adventurers who have recently experienced the 2013 state of the Arctic first hand.

“Two French men, Sébastien Roubinet and Vincent Berthet , who set out on a trek to the North Pole in July in a wind catamaran, announced today that they are blocked in the Arctic. A Russian ice-breaker has been dispatched to help them.”

“The goal was to make it to Spitzberg in the Svalbard archipelago in Norway, via the North Pole and observe the state of melting ice that has gone on over the past years.

Or how about chatting with these four Vancouverites who decided to row through the NorthWest Passage this year. Check out their blog for some great pics of grizzlies and muskox.


The CBC had a story about supply barges taking longer to get through the ice to replenish northern communities.

The sea ice has survived the summer melt of 2013. It came in at 5.1 million square kilometers. Who is up for failure in 2014?

Well, wouldn’t you know: it is Al Gore. Good luck with that. Balki will be back next year with his anti-Gore prediction.

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