Change is what the climate does: CAGW

Showing posts with label CAGW. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Chill! Deep inside you knew it was phony...

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Good Grief! Chill!

The planet is fine. It is resilient. Not so sure about some humans though. Some seem to love indulging in hysteria. Can they not live without FEAR and a sidedish of GUILT as motivators? Must there always be drama? We may need psychological programs to help them cope with the good news.

Change is what the climate does and somewhere everyday the weather is weird. It's normal. Nothing unusual is happening. Back in the 1920s people were worried about rising temperatures, a melting Arctic and rising sea levels. They speculated on what would happen if the trend continued just like we do. We're still waiting for the disaster. In the 1970s we were worried about a coming ice age because scientists detected a falling trend in temperatures. That should tell us that climate change is cyclical. It's a cycle, it's a cycle, it's a cycle!

There is reason to believe that temps have peaked and have started on the downside part of the cycle. Even James Lovelock, champion of the GAIA concept now admits temps have not risen for 15 years even as CO2 has continued its meteoric rise in our atmosphere. That's a disconnect between theory and reality and reality is always the final arbiter in deciding which human climate theory survives. Reality trumps theory!

Bye, Bye, CAGW.

Isn't this good news? It means that all of the 'green' policies that governments have pursued were completely unnecessary. We don't have to subsidize alternative forms of energy like solar, wind and biofuels, ban the incandescent bulb, use reusable bags, grow food to burn in our cars or live in FEAR and feel GUILTY for using fossil fuels. Except for the billions and billions of dollars wasted on climate research and these unnecessary programs we should rejoice at our good fortune of being liberated from the climate hysteria. We can continue to use the cheapest fuel available until the next cheapest fuel becomes necessary. And shale oil and gas has arrived to keep the standard of living on an upward trend for all the new people in the pipeline. Again, there is hope for the poor!

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Skeptics are nuts?

Professor Kari Norgaard is author of the book "Living in Denial: Climate Change, Emotions and Everyday Life" (2011, MIT Press). "This kind of cultural resistance to very significant social threat is something that we would expect in any society facing a massive threat," she said. The discussion, she said, is comparable to what happened with challenges to racism or slavery in the U.S. South.

The assumption being made by Ms Norgaard is that just like slavery and racism the people defending climate realism are wrong in their cultural and scientific stance. But what if that assumption is false? What if climate change has nothing to do with the addition of CO2 to the atmosphere by humans? What if there is no ' very significant social threat'? If that turns out to be true then, ironically, it will be Ms Norgaard and others like her who will be living in denial. The thesis of her book could just as easily be written by someone who observes the inability of alarmists to admit that their theory of CO2 induced warming is failing their own predictions as attested to by the data coming from a measurement of reality.

We determine the truth or falsity of a scientific theory by appeal to reality. If the theory agrees with what we find in reality then the theory is supported. If the theory disagrees with reality then the theory must be modified or abandoned. Reality is the final arbiter.

For example, it is implied that CAGW results in increasing global temperatures when the atmosphere accumulates more CO2 via the burning of fossil fuels. So when the warming stops as it has for the last 15 years while CO2 has continued to accumulate in the atmosphere or temperatures decrease with an increase in CO2 as happened during the 60s and 70s there is a disconnect between theory and reality.

The psychiatric definition of delusion is: maintaining fixed false beliefs even when confronted with contradictory facts. Something is definitely wrong with the rationality of a person who ignores reality in favor of some cherished belief. Our emotions can often lead us down dark alleys and human issues connected with the emotional topics of politics and religion can often be accompanied y tunnel vision. This is why free and open human discourse is so important. When things are aired publicly our natural confirmation bias is confronted with the cognitive dissonance offered by others and from the interplay of the two truth will be distilled.

One instance of disconnect between theory and reality may not be enough to sink the theory but if additional observations begin to accumulate that widen the disconnect then the theory must either account for each of them or be abandoned as incorrect.

According to the theory of CAGW we should expect to experience increasingly severe weather trauma as CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere. I am sure that we would all agree that severe weather includes such phenomena as hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, drought and floods. And yet, the historical data that we have indicates that all of those weather anomalies are less frequent rather than becoming more severe and more frequent. Charts supporting a decrease in all of these can be found at C3headlines.com. It is interesting to note that the US has not been hit by a major (F3-F5) hurricane since 2005 which is the longest period of absence in the record. Inclement weather is certainly no worse than it was in the past and is not accelerating. In fact, one could draw the conclusions based on the historical record that as CO2 has accumulated in the atmosphere severe weather has decreased in frequency.

Another part of the CAGW story is that as the world warms winters will get warmer and we will see less snow. "Children won't know what snow is" said David Viner in 2000. The people in Europe, Alaska, Russia, China and Japan in 2012 might be wondering what happened to their global warming as they were pounded by severe cold and accumulated lots of snow even as Southern Ontario and the NE US were basking in winter warmth. Even the summer in Australia was abnormally cool. While we had the winter that winter forgot Australia had the summer that summer forgot. It seems CO2 can be very selective about where it decides to 'trap' heat. Snow cover records for the US are maintained and show an upward trend even as CO2 concentration continues to rise in our atmosphere. In addition, Arctic sea ice, after a low in 2007, has quietly returned to the 30 year mean in 2012. The long awaited and much predicted ice free Arctic has not materialized even as CO2 has continued to accumulate in the atmosphere. Since 2002 global temperatures have been declining.

To deny these observations is to be disconnected from reality. To maintain the belief in CAGW in the face of this contradictory evidence is to mire oneself in self-delusion.

Ms Norgaard's book actually examines not the cultural resistance to the reality of CAGW but the perception of the populace to the non-problem of CAGW. People are resisting change because they realize that any climate change that is occurring is not due to man and is not catastrophic. They have recognized the hyperbole of the CAGW supporters. They are resisting the FEAR and GUILT that are being peddled by the alarmists and maintaining a rational attitude toward the world. The amusing part is that Ms Norgaard hasn't realized it yet. People have seen through the sham Mam. That is what they are resisting. The people are smarter than the academics.

When people do not accept a cherished belief of the guardians of special knowledge a common response is to devalue the non-believer, insult them, attack their reputation and finally imply that there is something wrong with them. Cherished beliefs do not go gently into that good night.

Saturday, March 31, 2012

Why I am skeptical of CAGW even before I look at the Science

CAGW - Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming aka Climate Change due to Human Induced CO2

There are many reasons to be skeptical about the CAGW claims before you even look at what the climate is doing.

It is a politicized issue. When politicians are involved in a scientific issue it immediately becomes suspect because special interests will get involved that may not have the public interest at heart and may be more interested in using the government to line their own pockets with taxpayer money.

Subsidies and laws directing taxpayer money to solar, wind and biofuels can create new industries and new millionaires who may be the political contributors or friends of elected politicians. Subsidies raise suspicions about the motives of those receiving them. Subsidies are rarely recovered if the company goes bankrupt as often happens when government tries to pick winners.

Hypocrisy among the champions of the issue who do not lead by example. They expect others to "do as I say and not as I do". They preach sea level rise and the future flooding of coastal cities and then buy seaside mansions. Do they buy Chevy VOLTS that their programs subsidize? Do they engage in more electronic meetings rather than flying around the country from conference to conference?

Claims that the science is settled, the debate is over and that their is a scientific consensus should immediately activate the skeptical radar and be treated as a ploy to manipulate public opinion and stifle objections. Look closely, for someone is trying to start a gravy train with their pockets as a destination. Guardians of the sacred knowledge don't want you to see it.

"The growth of knowledge depends entirely on disagreement" -- Karl Popper

The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts -- Bertrand Russell

Launching ad hominems at those who respectfully disagree with the accepted (PC) viewpoint initiates the BS radar. Robert Kennedy recently call Sen. Inhofe a Prostitute: Big Oils top call girl. Good argument, Bob. Will win over no one but will provide a chuckle for the converted. Also called Sen Inhofe a traitor who should be executed in previous years. Sen. Inhofe thinks prostitute is an improvement.

Appealing to authority as if counting heads is how science works. It took two hundred years but eventually the conventional wisdom of Newtonian physics was overturned by one guy named Albert. Science is filled with such examples. Alfred Wegener comes to mind. So what if all the National Academy of Sciences and other scientific organizations agree that CAGW is real? Not all of the scientists within those bodies will agree. And then there is this from the American NAS.

Focusing on who made a claim. Ask not who made the claim, ask whether or not the claim is true. ~Aquinas

Focusing on how many make a claim. Ask not how many make a claim, ask whether or not it is true. ~Me

Focusing on who funded a claim. Ask not who funded the claim, ask whether or not it is true. ~Me

When those responsible for reporting on the State of the Climate seek immunity from prosecution should our skeptical radar not become acticated?

Appeals to world government (global governance) as part of the solution to the problem smells of people control and nothing else. "In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill....All these dangers are caused by human intervention....and thus the “real enemy, then, is humanity itself....believe humanity requires a common motivation, namely a common adversary in order to realize world government. It does not matter if this common enemy is “a real one or….one invented for the purpose." ~Club of Rome

"The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false face for the urge to rule it." ~ H.L. Mencken

Pinky: Gee, Brain, what are we going to do tonight?
Brain: Same thing we do every night, Pinky - try to take over the world!

Predictions of disaster (PoD) if the policies for CO2 reduction are not followed. When has a disaster of global proportions ever happened as a result of human action? PoDs are used to scare up money for preferred projects and policies and to frighten people into acquiescence. Scare tactics are immediately suspect and crackle the skeptical radar. Remember weapons of mass destruction? Now we have: Earth has a fever.

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed — and hence clamorous to be led to safety — by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." ~ H.L. Mencken

How much pain have they caused us, the evils that never happened. ~ Thomas Jefferson

Efforts of scientists to stymy the request for their data from other scientists. This suggests data manipulation and a cover up. Contrast this with the behavior of the scientists who thought they had found particles that went faster than light. They invited other scientists to look at their data. See Climategate I and II emails.

“No matter if the science is all phoney, there are collateral environmental benefits.... climate change [provides] the greatest chance to bring about justice and equality in the world.” ~ Christine Stewart, former Canadian Environment Minister

When the 'humanity is the problem' paradigm is present so is an agenda. And the humanity that is the problem is often those carrying the placard proclaiming 'humanity is the problem'. They have an agenda. If there is a real problem then technology is probably our best bet to resolve it.

"We redistribute de facto the world's wealth by climate policy...Basically it's a big mistake to discuss climate policy separately from the major themes of globalization...One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy anymore." ~ Ottmar Edenhoffer, high level UN-IPCC official

When scientists become activists and insert themselves into a political 'cause' it can become a self-serving exercise as research funding can be manipulated to flow their way. Politicians can be swayed by their authoritative demeanors backed by data that supports a scary scenario. But just as a lie can spread around he world before the truth has a chance to tie its shoes so can preliminary data 'spark an urgent need' to do something about an issue before cooler heads prevail and all the evidence is weighed in the court of scientific peer-reviewed journals. Politicians love a good crisis for they get a chance to play savior and to demonize dissent. The mainstream media (MSM) love a good scare because it sells advertising because readership goes up.

Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.

— Dwight David Eisenhower

Farewell Address as U.S. President (1961). In Diane Ravitch, The American Reader (2000), 538

These are some reasons to be skeptical of the claims of those who support the idea that human induced CO2 in our atmosphere will lead to CAGW before we even look at the science that is alleged to bolster it.

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible.” ~ Bertrand Russell

PS: more support for the skeptic.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

When a scientist predicts 20C warming

you know that the CAGW crisis is nearing its end. They do admit that they do not know when that milestone will be reached. Perhaps they should have added 'if that milestone is reached'.

Now they are really trying to scare us. The quote below was made on Earth Day 1970.

“The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”
~ Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

Guess the trends didn't continue. At least Kenneth was wise enough to use that CYA hedge. It would have been really useful if Kenneth could have peered into the future about 6 years and seen the PDO shift that was going to take place with the resulting step jump in world temperatures. But he didn't use that crystal ball. Wonder why?

Guess Matthew Huber is not watching the current temperature trends.

I feel quite safe in saying that the 20C rise due to increasing CO2 concentrations will not occur.

We'll see who is correct.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Mild winter 2011-2012

No mention of CAGW? Amazing. The comments are interesting.

One commenter asks if the MSM are finally realizing that the CAGW issue is dying a slow death?

Instead of attributing the mild winter to human additions of CO2 to the atmosphere we get explanations in terms of La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation. Real science for a change. Nice.

And here is what was going on in other parts of the world in winter 2011-2012 while we were enjoying the break from shoveling. Glad I wasn't there!

Let's enjoy the warm weather. Those warm spring days are diminishing in Washington.

Mild March not do to global warming.

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Here is why Heartland is despised

And it has nothing to do with the source of their funding. Heartland will draw attention to studies which call the whole CO2 induced global warming crisis into question. Here is a study that invalidates the IPCC climate models as useful guides to future climate. Those models cannot simulate the real world radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere(TOA). The study "suggests that the historical rise in the air's CO₂ content has likely played a next-to-negligible role in the post-Little Ice Age warming of the world."

This news will not be welcomed by the CAGW crowd and so they deflect attention to the funders of the study rather than asking if the claims made are true.

Here is another study reported in Climate Change Reconsidered data from the Heartland Institute. This study reports that there is no trend in tropical cyclones in East Asia as CO2 has increased in the atmosphere. The study covered the years 1945-2000 and concluded: "none of the time series shows a significant linear temporal trend, which suggests that global warming has not led to more landfalls in any of the regions in Asia."

This is just more cognitive dissonance for the CAGW alarmists. It invalidates the man-made global warming hypothesis.

Change is what the climate does

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It is no longer global warming because it isn't.

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