Warmists believe in man made global warming because 97%, science and the warmest year in recorded history, or something.
The world has millions of scientists. When challenged to produce the polls and the questions asked in those polls to corroborate their 97% assertion there will be none that support the CO2 centric meme of AGW. Although there are some that have been done of subsets of the scientific population that indicate the 97% figure is a myth.
When it is pointed out to warmists that history goes back further into the past than the 21st century and that scientists tell us that there were periods in the planet’s evolution that were warmer than we currently experience what would be the alarmist response? After all, it is they who contend that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere over the previous 800,000 years of pre-industrial terrestrial existence remained constant. So if CO2 is the main driver of climate change how could the world be warmer in the past than it is now? Or cooler?
The conclusion has to be that there are other natural factors at work that drive climate change. What climatologists DO NOT KNOW is how to apportion responsibility for climate change among the various possible drivers such as volcanic activity, cloudiness, humidity, ocean currents, land use change, UHI, orbital irregularities and solar variability to name a few. If we do not know the extent of the role that each plays in the climate drama then how can we attribute modern warming to but one overriding factor? Methinks that we owe CO2 an apology.
The Global Climate Models that climatologists depend on give the starring role to CO2. These GCMs make predictions about the future based on assumptions about how the inputs to the models will change over time and how they interact in the real world. We test these models by observing how well they do against real world observations. So what predictions do the CO2 centric models make?
These are six we can look at and we will see that as CO2 rises Gaia surprises by invalidating all six. There are recent references provided in the links above for all six predictions that report on their progress.
We are going to look only at the first one since an increasing temperature is the most obvious one to expect if the CO2 centric heat trapping theory is true. Have you all heard that 2014 was the hottest year in recorded history until 2015 came along?
If the media tell you that 14 of the hottest recorded years occurred in the 21st century would that concern you?
If you were told 6000-8000 years ago in a time scientists identify as the Holocene Climate Optimum (HCO) it was warmer than now would that ease your mind?
CO2 was at pre-industrial levels 6000-8000 years ago so how did it get so warm?
Do we know?
So, in the HCO, we must conclude that the world warmed WITHOUT the assistance of CO2 levels like our own.
There were other periods warmer than now within the last 10,000 years most notably the Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warm Periods. This is clearly shown in the Greenland ice core data displayed below.
As our world warms from the Little Ice Age receding glaciers do us a favor and remind us of warmer times as their recession has a habit of exposing old tree stumps and mummies from times gone by. The age of these artifacts teach us that it must have been warmer than now in their time of life when CO2 was far below current levels. What does that mean? It helps us to understand that CO2 concentration carries no weight in determining the global mean temperature. CO2, far from having the lead role attributed to it in the modern climate drama, is a bit player or perhaps does not belong in the cast at all. Lower CO2 is NOT a guarantee of better weather as a cursory glance into weather history will attest.
The last interglacial, known as the Eemian , was also several degrees warmer than now as were others before it.
The following graph lays out what scientists have discovered about temperatures and CO2 levels in more distant geological eras. Do you see any relationship?
If what geologists are telling us is true then our planet has experienced ice ages when CO2 was high and warm periods when CO2 decreased. This eliminates CO2 as a causative factor in our climate drama.
Our climate changes continuously. No one denies this. We do not fully understand how the various climate drivers interact to produce our climatic experience. But we CAN eliminate CO2, from whatever origin, as a primary driving factor in the climate change of the earth.
Just because the rooster crows before the sun comes up does not mean it is the cause of the dawn. Just because it is warming while CO2 is rising is not proof of cause.
There is no justification for the 97% figure anymore than there is scientific evidence for CO2 as cause of the late 20th century warming. It has been warmer before the transformative industrial revolution started by modern humans. And that is what science has to teach us.
With all the bad press that CO2 has received over the years humans tend to forget that CO2 is a trace gas essential to life on Earth. Plants can’t live without it and they are doing a wonderful job.
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