It is no longer global warming because it isn't.

It is climate change because it does.

Men are never so likely to settle a question rightly as when they discuss it freely.

— Thomas B. Macaulay (1800-1859), Essay on Southey's Colloquies

All of us could take a lesson from the weather. It pays no attention to criticism.


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Friday, January 30, 2015

Divergence

Divergence is becoming a huge problem for climate science just as Divergents are a problem for the authorities in the movie franchise Divergent.

First we have the divergence between global climate model scenarios of how temperature should play out as CO2 continues to increase unabated in the atmosphere with the actual temperatures presented by Mother Nature.

We have the divergence between rising CO2 and falling frequency of extreme weather.

And now we have the divergence of land and sea based temperature datasets with the satellite based temperatures.

The divergence of the fantasyland of man made global warming/climate change from reality is increasing.

And so diverges public opinion from that of the manipulators in politics.  

News from our Rapidly Warming WInters

Freezing UK in travel hell as airport closes, flights delayed and motorists abandon cars http://shr.gs/MaqrfWf

Outskirts of #Quetta, Pakistan today. It's the first snowfall of the winter & there's more heavy #snow to come. Jo

Uh oh: Anchorage forecast shows "days w/o below 0F" streak to end 100s of days short of record http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/US/AK/Anchorage.html …












Romney Eliminates Self from POTUS Race



“I’m one of those Republicans who thinks we are getting warmer and that we contribute to that,” said Romney, adding that Washington has done “almost nothing” to address it.

Well that is the opinion of a failed politician who will fail if he makes a second bid for the top job. Top scientists beg to differ.





The common folk aren’t buying into the apocalyptic nature of climate change. Climate changes continuously. Shrug. Yawn. Go back to work.



Perhaps Romney is in the wrong party.



Papal Poop

~In the end we are all equal.

With the anticipated release of the papal encyclical on climate change after the papal visit to the Philippines in January 2015 we will see the See demonstrate the fallibility of the office.
Never one to miss an opportunity to blame the rotten state of the world on capitalist greed the Pope will commiserate on the climate and adopt the official alarmist belief that it is the most pressing issue facing humankind and if we fail to address it we are all going to hell.
This is papal poop. If Pope Francis truly believes this then let him go play Survivor without Jeff Probst to bring reward. Pooping in the wild ought to cure him of his nonsense.
It is Nature that continually slaps Man in the face with hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, droughts, disease, pestilence, fire, blizzards, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes and other such wonderful gifts. It has been the ingenuity of Humans that allows the Pope to spout his nonsense in such opulent surroundings while traveling above it all in a CO2 spouting airplane.
Humans have learned to protect ourselves from some of Nature’s elements by discovering how Nature works and employing that knowledge to provide a better life for ourselves. We conquer disease, learn how to increase crop harvests on fewer acres, build climate controlled shelter, construct infrastructure to handle our waste and precipitation runoff etc.
We learn how to care for our environment and how to prevent soiling our own nest. We have built support networks to assist each other when natural disasters do occur as they always have and always will. The world is a better place BECAUSE of our stewardship. Are we perfect? Of course not. Do we continue to learn and monitor our impact on the planet? Of course we do. Do we want to see the poorest among us have a better life? That goes without saying.
When we look at where we were and where we are now we see progress everywhere. World poverty is down. World food production is up. Armed conflict is down. Major diseases affect fewer people. Do we still have problems? Of course we do. And with no slowdown in our ingenuity we will make progress on remaining problem areas as well.
In many ways we have transformed our planet from an inhospitable, uncaring hell hole into a home. As a species we are driven to explore, discover, understand and bend to our will the workings of Nature. We take what we find and use it to make our lives more comfortable. Does the Pope live in comfort? Does he think everyone should have the opportunity to live like he does or does he want to keep his minions in poverty?
Humans are amazing creatures who employ our minds to unravel the secrets of Nature and engineer ways to use that knowledge to make our stay on our planet as comfortable as possible for as many as possible. But the Pope is trained only to see SIN, to focus on the evil that some humans do. He should not use that observation of some adults to prejudice his view and paint all humans as adult-children in need of his guidance. Most adults enjoy and seek positive and mutually beneficial experiences with their fellow humans. The real troublemakers are those who want to do a makeover of the human species to better fit their idea of how humans should behave. WWII comes to mind.
The Pope has had his mind invaded by the stink of the sewer that permeates the discussion on climate change. He uncritically accepts the belief that carbon dioxide, an invisible trace gas essential to life on Earth, is wrecking the planet and that we must reduce our output of this harmless gas or face irreparable damage to ourselves and the Earth. He has bought into the “It’s real, it’s bad, it’s us, scientists agree, there’s hope” meme that is being offered by those pursuing control over the world’s resources.
He is offering himself as a useful idiot for the alarmist crowd that has the power to run and ruin lives.
He wants people to behave in accordance with his worldview and is willing to use coercion to accomplish that goal. He may think he is acting in accordance with scientific findings but he would be wrong. He is lending himself to the dark side to further his status in the New World Order. Pope Francis is, frankly, a shepherd for the sheeple.
Mother Nature has seen and survived much worse than anything humans have yet done including planetary collisions, a constant bombardment from the sun and the cosmos, tectonic meanderings and her own super volcanic explosions and tsunamis. Life has been decimated at least five times in the past and yet it came back each time. Both the planet and life are resilient.
Even now as humans have emitted carbon dioxide into the atmosphere via the burning of fossil fuels thus upsetting a balance of Nature the flora are learning to adapt to the new levels and seem to be quite enjoying the experience. The forests and crops show vigorous growth in response. Satellites show the planet is greening as CO2 increases in the atmosphere. We have learned that the concentration of CO2 has been much higher than present for most of the last 600 million years through times when the temperature of the Earth was both higher and lower than today. This lack of correlation over geological time should reassure His Highness that CO2 is not the cause of the modest modern warming since the end of the Little Ice Age. Scientists point out that there have been many past periods of both warming and cooling in our planet’s history.
CO2 and Geocraft graph.png
Harris-Mann_Historic_Temp_Chart.jpg
Climate change has a periodicity to it of varying lengths that suggests there are many cycles of change converging at different times to keep the planet in a continual state of climate modification.  Warm periods of the last 10,000 years such as the Holocene climatic optimum, the Minoan Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period all had temperatures that were above those of today while CO2 remained at the acceptable and revered pre-industrial level throughout that time. This scientific information is a huge disconnect between fact and the CO2 centric theory of climate change.
GISP-last-10000-years-small.jpg
A final historical bit of cognitive dissonance for the alarmists among us is the failure of the contemporary global mean temperature to increase over the last 18 years even as CO2 has continued its inexorable unabated rise in our air. This is not the result that is produced by the multi-billion dollar computer simulations of future climate. The global climate models that run on supercomputers expect the temperature to rise as CO2 rises. Theory busted. Can computer models be trusted?
18yrs3mostasis.png
This short trip through our climate history should convince anyone that CO2 has nothing to do with temperature, weather or climate and reassure us that there is no tipping point in our immediate future as the planet and life have survived levels far higher than we or our descendants will ever experience. Fossil fuels will be replaced as our main energy source long before they run out. Rising prices due to their scarcity will encourage a switch to newer and perhaps newly discovered fuels for that is the way and the nature of the unfettered human mind.
The Pope will champion the view of the ruling elite because he sees the See and wants it to be part of that elite. Status and adulation are an elixir for being. The Pope’s encyclical on climate change should be seen as a self serving action designed to keep his office among the elite leaders. The Papal office will always sacrifice truth on the altar of self aggrandizement. Not to do the bidding of the Core Alarmists risks irrelevance.
The Pope and his advisors have a problem that they don’t understand. Science doesn’t stand still for any man. Human progress has made the climate pronouncements of the Pope irrelevant.
Says the pope in the text of a speech delivered at Manila University:
"As stewards of God’s creation, we are called to make the earth a beautiful garden for the human family. When we destroy our forests, ravage our soil and pollute our seas, we betray that noble calling," he said in the text.
Our soil is so ravaged that our harvests are setting records. Our oceans are so polluted we can’t find where all the plastic went. Our forests are so decimated that they absorb more CO2 than previously expected. The globe is greening due to CO2 fertilisation thanks, in part, to our fossil fuel burning.
The Pope is not in the service of God(truth), he is the service of the ruling elite(1%). He grew up being told Man is the great sinner and leaves out all the great things that we have accomplished to “make the earth a beautiful garden for the human family.” The market improves and the ruling elite disapproves. Make us bad and therein lies the excuse for a totalitarian takeover. Bad Man(riff raff) must be ruled by Good Man(ruling elite).

Could it be that the rich elite are worried about having to share their lifestyles with the riff raff and want to take control over the resources of the world to protect what they have come to regard as their birthright?
The movie Elysium expresses this division between the ruling elite and ‘the common people’ as does the movie franchise known as The Hunger Games. The novel 1984 is an earlier version of the familiar theme. Totalitarianism is alive and well in the 21st century. It didn’t die with the demise of the Soviet Union. A top down command society is Nirvana to the control freaks among us.
Do we really want resurrect the ghost of Stalin?

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Uncertainty and Risk in Climate Science

People who sound the alarm on dangerous man made climate change(DMMCC) like to talk in terms of certainty, risk and inaction.
They tout the mythical ‘97% of scientists’ meme to establish certainty complemented by an allusion to doctors’ advice on a disease and conclude with a call to action.
Referencing faulty studies (Legates,2014) claiming 97% agreement among scientists that climate change is real and caused by us is both disingenuous and irrelevant. Was it Aquinas who advised: ask not who made the claim but whether the claim is true? Perhaps a corollary should be added to that epithet: ask not how many make the claim ask if the claim is true. If Mother Nature doesn’t agree then the 97% are wrong because Mother Nature has the only opinion that counts and she is never errs.
The level of certainty in the medical profession for known diseases is much higher than the level of certainty in the fields of meteorology or climate science for weather patterns. You would take the advice of a doctor about a disease because of that knowledge. But would you have the same confidence in the advice of a meteorologist or a climate scientist just because they have a Phd beside their name?  Would you bet your life on it? Scientists are less likely to be correct in a field that studies a complex, dynamic, chaotic non-linear system are they not?
” … In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” From the 3rd IPCC report, Section 14.2 “The Climate System”, page 774.
Back in 2001 the IPCC had a firm grasp of their subject matter. What happened? Groupthink?
A glance at the history of ice free Arctic forecasts ought to give anyone pause that climate scientists are able to tell us anything useful about the future. And if they cannot give us correct information about an ice free Arctic how much confidence should we have in their ability to predict what the climate is going to be like in 2100?

Shouldn’t we at least be certain there is a problem that we can do something about?

Why would you dig a hole only to fill it in again?

If what you want to do can’t/won’t solve the problem is it rational to do it anyway just so you can say you did something? What about the waste of resources?

Building wind turbines or solar farms to reduce CO2 caused GW when there is no sign of CO2 caused GW is stupid unless you are an investor in wind turbines or solar panels.

If we don’t have confidence in the ability of climate scientists to foretell the future why should we follow their advice about mitigation of the problem? Perhaps there is no problem?

A careful review of the data does not lead one to believe that we live on a planet in peril. If geoscientists are to be believed then CO2 has been at higher levels than we currently experience for most of the last 600 million years. We are here. Therefore there was no tipping point, no runaway global warming that made the planet inhospitable for life.
The scare is unjustified. Shall we look for motive?

CO2 Isn't A Pollutant

This is how the alarmists in the article advise their followers to address the argument ‘CO2 isn’t a pollutant’ when they encounter it.
“Their underlying logic is that you can never have too much of a good thing – ask them if they realize that’s what they’re arguing, then give them your best scornful school teacher stare.
Too much of anything can be dangerous, hence the phrase “too much”. You can even be killed by drinking too much water.”
‘Too much of anything can be dangerous’
So how much CO2 is too much? Blank out. No data given. Very scientific. Sure to convince a skeptic. There are roughly 400 ppm (parts per million) CO2 in the ambient air in 2014. Is that too much? How about 4000 ppm? Sounds like a lot. Would that turn the planet into an oven, uninhabitable for living things?
CO2 is rising by 2ppm per year. If we are to believe geoscientists CO2 has been at least as high as 4000 ppm in the geological past. There was no tipping point, no runaway global warming that made the planet uninhabitable. CO2 is not the bogeyman under the bed. It is not the hand on the oven dial.
How many years to reach 4000 ppm at 2ppm growth per year? 2000? And 4000 ppm WON’T kill us all. Mother Nature has already performed that experiment.
At the current rate of fossil fuel use how many years till we run out? 1000 if we continue to use coal. Less when oil and gas run out because coal use, if still permitted, will increase. Everyone knows that as the supply of fossil fuels runs down prices will escalate. People will seek substitutes for fossil fuels long before they are exhausted. Perhaps Molten salt or thorium nuclear reactors will become a replacement for electrical generation.
If after 1000 years we have no more fossil fuels and the level of CO2 is only 2000 ppm which WON’T kill us all does anyone see a justification for the global warming hysteria? Are end time scares a worry?  Is there a problem? Is there a problem other than in the minds of those who think there is a problem?
Not in my world. The numbers don’t add up to disaster or danger. The planet is fine and so are we.
Billions of dollars are being wasted on the study of a non-existent problem. Those billions could have been spent on real problems like poverty, disease and famine or to shore up human defenses in places where extreme weather tends to occur. The people of the here and now are suffering for no visible benefit. Can we sue the scientists, politicians, environmentalists and media who have misled us about the dangers of climate change? Can we get our money back? Will the insanity stop?
Or will the MMCC circus continue? My money but not my heart is on the continuation of the nonsense BECAUSE so much has been invested in it. Too risky for the plug to be pulled now. Everyone who stumps for the global warming/climate change cause will look as stupid as they really are. Who wants that? Not the attendees at the annual Conferences of the Parties of the UNFCCC that’s for sure! Is this a cynical opinion? Is it justified?
You be the judge.
CO2 is clean and green.
CO2, an invisible trace gas essential to life on Earth, is plant food. We exhale CO2 and help to feed the flora. In return they slip us oxygen of which we are rather fond in a mutually beneficial and amicable symbiotic relationship. From this evil comes?
We owe CO2 an apology.

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